ST trend: up

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. We were also mentioning that a ML breakdown was avoided by buyers and as long as that lvl continued to be defended, the buyers would continue to have the edge. And a break back above 400bar MA would suggest a run to the ATHs. That is exactly what came to pass. ML was defended twice during the cash session, 2nd time a SE also came to the rescue and buyers pushed from there right into a new ATH.

The o/n saw a choppy sideways session with initial pullback being bought and then price finally pushing to new highs. Buyers continue to hold the upper hand as the potential topping patterns on the GSIs keep getting busted. We are in a giant up squeeze since 13th of October, with very limited pullbacks, so once this momentum fails, the snap-back could be quite violent. However until ML fails in a sustained way, the main trend is still up and no reversal is confirmed.

ST trend: down

Yeterday (same every day since Tuesday, actually) we were noting that the ST trend was up and the market delivered. We had a BE Xtick right off the cash open, which was broken out, and there was no looking back after that. The FGSI nicely hinted we could get an up squeeze set-up and that played out text book. The market finally peaked in the 2nd part of the day, also text-book for the FGSI up squeeze set-up, only after FGSI turned back up to mark an unconfirmed high.

From the unconfirmed high, the market pulled back pretty strongly, bounced, but the bounce showed buyers were inefficient and after that sellers took control. They broke to new lows and ran price into a ML test. A pullback to ML would be the normal expectation after an up squeeze set up, however it is a bit concerning that ML did not hold cleanly. Buyers had a decently bullish set up going into the ML test. We had bullish EE on both FGSI and IGSI, FGSI was at extreme pessimism (green zone). So they should have held ML more cleanly. But they didn't and this looks more like a breakdown with rejections at the back-test attempts. FGSI is showing buyers are inefficient, so the ST trend is down for now. Price is still in the vicinity of ML, so not all is lost for buyers. They can still stick save this, but they need to win back ML. And whatever they do, they MUST defend the bullish EE lvl on FGSI (it is at the same lvl also on IGSI, so double importance). If that lvl goes, then that would be seriously concerning for the up trend.

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was up as sellers were inefficient on pullbacks, however did warn that if ML is broken, the bullish trend would come under question. Sellers did manage to break below ML initially and pushed price lower, but once FGSI reached extreme pessimism, buyers stepped back in. They bounced nicely to close about 10 points off the ATH going into the long w/e. On Sunday the market pulled back again, with FGSI reaching once more extreme pessimism and again buyers stepped in to push priceon the holiday Monday close to the ATH.

From the area close to the ATH we saw yet another pullback and FGSI bottomed here at extreme pessimism again. Buyers stepped in to buy this, however FGSI is showing they are inefficient. Additionally price is below ML, so for now, it looks like sellers have the upper hand in the Short Term. We still have bullish EE vs last time FGSI was at extreme pessimism, so if buyers manage to win back ML, then the odds would shift again. ML remains the key for the near term trend.

ST trend: down (with potential bottom attempt)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was down, as price was still below ML and FGSI was showing both sides were inefficient. The market continues to chop between the bearish and bullish EE on FGSI, and even tried to break above ML after the cash market open, but failed to do so. Once the FED minutes were released it tried again to break above ML, but we got a completing signal on TT, with a Buyer Exhaustion (BE) right at that spike high, which was just above ML. It rejected price strongly and even though buyers stepped in after another TT signal (a SE Xtick), the bounce off there made a lower high and then sellers took complete control.

The o/n saw more downside and even lower lows made, which was to be expected given the big confirmed lows on FGSI and IGSI at the cash close yesterday. However now we do have the potential set-up for a meaningful bottom. Both FGSI and IGSI show unconfirmed lows, while MGSI touched the extreme pessimism area (green zone). That is potentially an explosive set-up for upside. The key to this set-up materializing is ML. If buyers manage to break above ML, then sellers need to be careful as a massive face ripping rally could ensue. If ML rejects price, then we might see more downside. Buyers want to defend those unconfirmed lows and avoid them from turning into confirmed lows. On the other hand, sellers must defend ML at all costs to have a shot at lower lows.

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down with bottoming attempt. Buyers did manage to hold those unconfirmed lows on FGSI and pushed higher into the cash open, before grinding and giving up some of those gains in the 2nd part of the session.

The o/n from Sunday and today saw buyers stepping in again and pushing prices back to the 4420 area. That zone has been a brick wall of resistance so far, price being rejected every time it got there. Today same thing happened with price dropping abruptly fro mthere right into an ML test. What happens from here is important for the near term. ML is key for the trend, as we keep repeating. Buyers would want to see ML holding and pushing back above danny and 400bar MA to put in a successful ML test. If danny or 400bar MA reject price, then another attack on ML is likely, while an ML breakdown would put sellers in the lead. We do have an unconfirmed high on FGSI at the recent o/n high, so a bigger turn could shape up from here, but it depends on whether ML can be broken on a sustained basis or not.