mcm daily market update 03.Jan.22

ST trend: up (with pullback in progress)

First off: Happy New Year! Welcome to 2022!

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was down, with potential bottoming attempt. The market had finally broken the 4770 support and fell to macro-ML quickly after that (as warned it would happen if ML and 4770 would give way). Price was just retesting 4770 and our expectation was that it could be just a reflective bounce. The market proved our expectations correct as it failed on the 1st back-test of ML and that important area and fell into another macro-ML test. Then another bounce, a spike above ML to 4780, then again failure and sell-off to macro-ML. Basically the entire Friday session was a chop between 4780 and macro-ML. Buyers held macro-ML, so that at least gives them some hope of holding the up trend.

The New Year brought some support for buyers as we gapped up on Sunday above ML and buyers were able to hold it on the back-test. Then they made another high above 4780, although they stopped 10 points higher. Now we are seeing a pullback from extreme optimism on FGSI into yet another ML back-test. The fact that buyers held macro-ML and won back ML, gives them hope that they just might stick save the up trend and resume the move higher. They are definitely not out of the woods just yet, so they need to keep holding these important levels and push higher to avoid a longer (and deeper) consolidation. They have not shown too much efficiency on FGSI or IGSI, so there are still some issues. Nevertheless, as long as ML and macro-ML are below price, buyers have the edge, so that needs to be respected until those levels fail.