mcm daily market update 10.Jan.22

ST Trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were inefficient via FGSI. We did note that as long as ML and macro-ML are above price, sellers retain an edge and that proved to be true. The bullish EE on FGSI with FGSI at extreme pessimism did lead to a bounce right into a ML test, but ML held as resistance and after whipsawing a few times, marrket then made new lows. We did get the usual Friday afternoon ramp, but that also failed just below ML.

Sunday saw new lows reached, before another bounce into ML. And the o/n today also saw 2 ML tests, but both rejected price strongly. Now the market appears to try to find another bottom. FGSI is at extreme pessimism again, but the main problem for buyers is that this is a confirmed low. So even if we get a ST bounce, more work is likely needed before a more meaningful bottom is found. In the bigger picture, ML keeps rejecting price and acting as a brick wall of resistance, which is in itself bearish. Buyers would need to break above ML to start looking at a more significant change in trend. Until then, sellers have the ball.