mcm daily market update 15.Jul.22

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we noted that the ST trend was down with potential bottoming process ongoing, as ML rejected price but FGSI was showing an unconfirmed low already. That low was broken and we made lower lows, but FGSI refused to confirm that low also and buyers managed to find a footing there (near 3720). Atfter that they staged an impressive rally, which was initially rejected at ML, but then they managed to breakout.

The o/n was friendly to the buyers. they managed to push higher than the RTH close, touched macro-ML where price was rejected. The drop came into a ML test which held after the initial spike lower. Now price challenging macro-ML again. The buyers have a slight edge here as they managed to hold ML. FGSI has large swings both ways, so neutral. On the upside macro-ML is the lvl to beat for buyers. Sellers on the other hand need to sustain a breakdown below ML to potentially have a shot at retesting yesterday's lows. Mkt looks coiled between ML and macro-ML, gathering energy for a breakout/down.

Today is OPEX, so we might see large swings both ways to decay both sides. Just be prepared for that and don't leave a position unattended.

EWT wise, the triangle pattern was invalidated. I still think this is a large B wave, but regular zig-zag or WXY, as oppossed to the presumed (now invalidated) triangle. The pattern could sustain one more low near 3700 and still be a B wave. If that plays out, next path is a large C wave move higher to 4200-4300. If the lows at 3640ish are broken, then more immediately bearish. In any case, it looks like we are close to a resolution soon. Max 1-2 trading sessions and the new trend will emerge.