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mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 11.Mar.21

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ST trend: up (with potential topping pattern)

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was down with potential bottoming attempt as FGSI continued to show unconfirmed low set-ups. We did mention that ML and macro-ML were the key levels for the trend and that proved once again true. Price continued lower, back-tested ML, rejected to new lows, then had a larger bounce off RTH open to test macro-ML, rejected there and pushed once more to new lows. Buyers managed to take control after that, as FGSI continued to refuse to confirm those lows and had a very impressive bounce to win back ML and macro-ML.

The o/n had a head-fake drop below macro-ML and ML, which was quickly bought to new highs. Then another ML back-test before it continued higher. Buyers were already making good progress and got and additional help from Russia as apparently "positive progress" in the talks with Ukraine is worth a 60+ point ramp. We are in an extended situation near term as both FGSI and IGSI are at extreme optimism, however danny continues to act as support for price and as long as that happens more immediate upside is possible. In order to keep the new found up trend intact, buyers would need to hold ML on any potential back-test.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 7.Mar.22

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ST trend: down (with bottoming attempt ongoing)

On Friday we noted that the ST trend was down as sellers pushed prices to lows at the all important 4280 lvl and then rejected price at ML. We mentioned that ML might be back-tested again and also that "bounces are sell opportunities, until proven otherwise". Both came to pass, ML was back-tested and price rejected there once again and sold off to retest the lows, before bouncing back near ML, holding there until the close.

Sunday saw yet another gap down and flush move, as the optimism that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would get solved over the w/e didn't come to pass. We broke Friday's o/n lows and reached 4240 before buyers finally stepped in and bounce price right back to ML. Now we are directly in a big inflection area at ML. Buyers overshoot it, but failed to put some distance to it. So this can be yet another ML back-test which rejects price. ML has proven to be a brick wall of resistance so far, so that would not be surprising. If buyers manage to hold price above ML and keep pushing higher to put some distance to ML, then we might have at least a ST bottom at the o/n lows. Next could of hours and especially how market acts after RTH open will be key for that.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 28.Feb.22

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ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as the market had consolidated in the o/n following the push on Thursday and was back-testing ML. We did mention that "As long as buyers hold ML, they could continue to push higher immediately" and that played out nicely. ML held price and buyers pushed to gain macro-ML as well, which had a text book back-test before the final push upwards. Mkt closed Friday' session at the highs, which proved to be a bull trap.

Sunday opened with a huge gap down based on the escalation to Russia-Ukraine conflict and the 1st use of the words "nuclear deterrent". Despite the big gap down, sellers didn't accomplish too much, as buyers managed to step in and stick save ML. Further on, sellers dropped the ball as FGSI showed they became inefficient on pullbacks. ML continues to be the KEY line in the sand for the ST trend. If buyers can continue to hold it as support, this can go to RTH gap fill which will be the next upper inflection point. Alternatively, if sellers manage to break below ML and take out the 1st bearish EE level (just below ML), then that would indicate that this decline wants to go deeper.