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mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 9.Jul.21

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ST trend: up

Yesterday we were noting that the trend was down, but with a potential bottoming attempt as FGSI was showing unconfirmed lows. Turns out the actual low was a few points away on yet another unconfirmed low on FGSI, then market bounced again very strongly from there. However, differently than in the other situations in the last 2 weeks, the bounce was stopped by ML which held as resistance.

The o/n came to the buyers' rescue and after a sideways action both up and down, there was yet another strong bounce which did manage to break back above ML. Now, as I have been repeating like a broken record - ML is key for the near term trend. Buyers winning back ML is a strong statement they are trying to get back in the lead. FGSI is showing an unconfirmed high at the o/n high and market pulled back from there to test ML once more. That triggered a pretty large bullish EE, so now this is where it gets decided. ML is the big inflection point going into today. If buyers manage to defend it and bounce, then the trend is back to up and we could be getting back to the usual up grind. Especially if they can turn the unconfirmed high on FGSI to a confirmed high. However, if price breaks back below ML then that would signal more bearishness ahead.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 8.Jul.21

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ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was up, as buyers stepped up and held a bullish EE set up on FGSI and broke a bearish EE one. We did get a bigger head-fake drop after the cash market open, which broke below ML, but that break was again bought right back up. Price broke a BE which triggered right below ML and danny, so once that triple resistance couldn't contain the bounce it was clear that buyers had regained control. Market proceeded then to make new ATHs after that.

The o/n today brings a nasty surprise for buyers. The new ATHs were sold strongly. The market dripped initially back towards another ML test and FGSI showed big bullish EE vs yesterday's low. However what happened next on FGSI was key. Buyers were very inefficient on the bounce off ML and FGSI moved back above the center line with almost no price movement. That was the key signal that something is wrong with the up trend and once ML was broken down there was no looking back. Danny capped price action the whole way down and even if FGSI bottomed in the extreme pessimism zone the market continued to move lower. Right now we do have extreme pessimism on IGSI and FGSI, with FGSI showing an unconfirmed low. So that puts a potential bottoming attempt on the table. However as long as danny (and momentum line) keep capping price action, the market can continue to make new lows. Danny is key in the ST for an attempted bounce.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 7.Jul.21

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ST trend: up

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, but the set up was there for a bigger correction. ML did give way and we did get a decent decline, until the market found a bottom at an unconfirmed low on FGSI (alerted in real time in the mcm chat room). Buyers stepped in strongly there and after breaking an important emotional area with 3 exhaustions (2 BEs and 1 SE), they pushed price directly to ML and broke back above.

The o/n saw a bit of consolidation after the big bounce off yesterday's LOD and for a while the trend was neutral, as both sides were inefficient via FGSI and we had both bullish and bearish EE setting up. However it was again buyers who took the lead, they held the bullish EE and broke through the initial bearish EE level. ML continues to move higher (pushed by price) and is the key for the trend. As long as buyers can keep price above, the trend is (back to) up. Losing ML would be a serious warning that we might get another attempt at more downside, but at the moment yesterday's LOD looks like the end of the near-term correction.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 06.Jul.21

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ST trend: neutral (with bigger correction potential)

On Friday we were noting that the trend was still up, as ML continued to hold and FGSI continued to paint confirmed highs. That pointed to the usual upward bias going into a long w/e will play out and indeed it has, with the market finishing with a new ATH.

However the up squeeze from the 2nd part of the cash session triggered a bearish pattern in FGSI, namely a 45 degree angle divergence. When these large divergences between FGSI and price happen, they are normally bearish as they indicate determined selling so basically distribution as the price goes up. This type of pattern was followed text-book until now, as price retested the divergent high and was rejected there. Now buyers look inefficient via FGSI. We also have additional warning signs. On the retest of the high (which actually made a minor new high), we had large unconfirmed highs on IGSI, MGSI and also FGSI showed an unconfirmed local high. All pointing to the POTENTIAL for a bigger turn. ML is being tested now and as usual, it is the key for the near term trend. If sellers break below ML, that would be a big warning that the 45 degree angle divergence on FGSI is indeed playing out (pointing to a larger decline). Buyers would need to best the o/n highs and run a bit further to cancel the bearish potential. Right now this looks like lower odds though.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 18.Jun.21

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ST trend: down, with potential bounce attempt

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient, as shown by FGSI (something which is happening quite often in the o/n as of late). The market had a big pop prior to the open, then a few whipsaws before finally dropping hard to retest Wednesday's lows before rallying hard into the close and retest the highs of the day.

The o/n now saw the market moving sideways and then starting to drift lower. FGSI is showing extreme pessimism already, so a bounce might be attempted, but it it also showing confirmed local lows, so the decline might extend. We have a bullish EE lvl vs yesterday's LOD, so that levels becomes important if we do in fact accelerate lower. The biggest problem for buyers is the fact that they lost ML, then tried to win it back but failed.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 16.Jun.21

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ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the trend was up, but with a potential reversal pattern, as all GSIs were showing unconfirmed highs at the o/n high. That did prove to be a bad omen for buyers and the market proceeded to then retrace the entire rocket launch move from Monday's last 2 hours cash session.

At LOD we did get an unconfirmed low on FGSI and market tried to bounce, but this time the bounce failed to get above ML, which is a clear indication that the buyers are losing control of the ST trend.

In the o/n session we had only a sideways movement with whipsaws in a tight range. FGSI is showing that both buyers and sellers are inefficient, as small price movements trigger big swings in FGSI. One thing that gives the sellers an edge is ML and the fact that it rejected price action yesterday but also in the o/n. ML continues to be the key for the near term trend, so if buyers want to stage a bigger bounce from here they must break above ML. Today is the conculsion of the FED 2 day meeting, so prices might stall and continue to sideways chop from the o/n until after the FED announcement and then stage a larger move.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 24.Mar.21

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ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was down, as buyers were showing large inefficiency on bounces and FGSI never touched the extreme pessimism (green) zone. That happened close to 6am and FGSI then had an unconfirmed low, which pointed to a potential ST bottom. From there the market ran back towards 3940, with FGSI getting close to extreme optimism, before failing and breaking down to new lows.

The o/n continued to be worrying for buyers, as the price action was more sideways, but FGSI had big spikes to the upside showing they are still very inefficient. However on the last dip, sellers were also inefficient and actually triggered a bullish EE vs the prior low, which held. That puts things in the neutral zone, as both sides are inefficient and trigger bullish and bearish EE on bounces/declines. Once one of those EEs gets broken, that will be a sign that one side is taking the lead.

ML is also a big line in the sand and if price holds above or below will also be important to see. Currently the buyers are attempting a breakout over ML, will be improtant to see if they can hold above.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 5.Mar.21

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ST trend: neutral (with bearish risk)

It seems the market stopped tipping its hand in the o/n session and keeps things in suspense until the cash market open. For several days we were noting that the trend was neutral as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI in the o/n session. Yesterday the buyers staged an attack over ML to get us back to an uptrend, but failed just above as the markets were disappointed by Powel's remarks. Funny how that works. So just to mention this again: ML is a KEY level for the overall trend. If price is above, we have a bullish bias, while if price is below - bearish.

In the o/n, both buyers and sellers were inefficient, as the market still tries to digest the mini-crash off Powel's statements. We have bearish EE above which held price action and pushed it lower and now bullish EE set up with FGSI bouncing from extreme pessimism. Those levels remain important and a breach would mean one side is getting the upper hand. Buyers want to hold the bullish EE and ideally to break back above ML. That would help them and could trigger a "relief rally". Sellers want to make a stand at (or below) ML and try to attack yesterday's LOD. Breaking the bullish EE level would help them significantly.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 26.Feb.21

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ST trend: up (attempted bottom)

Yesterday we noted that the trend was up, with whipsaw risks, as FGSI showed that also buyers were inefficient. The whipsaw risk turned into full on bear, once buyers continued to be inefficient on all bounces and the Maginot Line (ML) was lost. Just a reminder: the ST trend can change quickly if FGSI and the TT signals (ML is THE line in the sand for up/down trend) change character.

The o/n showed that buyers were up against the ropes several times, as the selling pressure continued and made the first bounce off yesterday's lows fail. However buyers made a big comeback and now we have a serious bottoming attempt. The last low was unconfirmed on FGSI and bulls bounced hard off of it AND broke the 1st bearish EE level. That is a big warning for sellers as it is exactly what should happen when the trend changes. However, buyers still need to win back the ML.

With both FGSI and IGSI showing unconfirmed lows at the o/n lows, the buyers have a great chance at turning this back up. But ML needs to give way, as long as price is below, the buyers are not out of the woods.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 16.Feb.21

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Summary: all 3 GSIs had unconfirmed highs at Monday's high, which means we are at an important inflection point. Sellers continue to be inefficient, however if FGSI breaks below a bullish EE level that would be a big warning that we might get a bigger correction. If the bullish EE level is defended, then another squeeze into the highs is possible. TT signals (danny, momentum, 400bar MA and ML) will be helpful in identifying early which scenario will play out. Breaking below ML would be a big statement from sellers (which would coincide with breaking the bullish EE too).

ST trend: up, with reversal risk

The late Friday melt-up into the long w/e produced extreme optimism on FGSI and then a series of unconfirmed highs. However Sunday and Monday saw price action continuing to grind up, while FGSI showed that sellers were extremely inefficient on all pullbacks which led to more and more highs. We currently have 2 unconfirmed highs on FGSI, from where the market pulled back, but again sellers were very inefficient and generated bullish excess energy (EE) vs the prior trip here (close to extreme pessimism). That is a 1st important level, if sellers are going to take initiative they would need to break below. If that happens, it would be a sign that at least ST, the character of the market is changing. Buyers are favorites now, so they simply need to defend that level and if so, then another trip to the highs is very likely.

IT trend: up, with reversal risk

We had some interesting developments also on the longer term GSIs, so we will cover them today as well. IGSI moved similarly to FGSI and made a big confirmed high on the open on Sunday, but then pulled back strongly, while price continued to grind higher. Now it dropped to below mid value after it put in an unconfirmed high at Monday's high. That sets up class B bullish EE already and means another squeeze up is possible. However, if FGSI breaks the bullish EE level, then we need to start watching the bullish EE levels on IGSI as breaking those would be more serious.

MGSI peaked and made a confirmed high at extreme optimism levels, which is again a warning this rally is getting very extended. It also started to pullback from there, while price continued highs, which makes Monday's high unconfirmed also on MGSI. A bigger pullback from MGSI extreme optimism is likely, the only question is if we will get one immediately or get another squeeze higher first into a clearer unconfirmed high.