Last week we had one of my favorite low risk set-ups, namely the Maginot Line (ML) "return to mean" trade. Actually it is a return to ML trade, but it works like a return to mean. This set-up basically states that whenever price gets too far (meaning more than 30-40 points) from ML, either on […]
ST trend: down (with potential bottom attempt) Yesterday we were noting that the trend was up as sellers were very inefficient on bounces. That played out nicely until SPX cash hit new ATHs. After that we noted live in the chat room that a low risk set-up for a short was arising. Price was significantly […]
This will be the 1st article of the "Lessons Learned" series. The aim is to discuss the most important set-ups on the mcm tools from the previous week and how they should be approached when they show up again. First up is Tick Tools, which was amazing on Friday. It nailed the top off the […]
ST trend: neutral (with bearish risk) It seems the market stopped tipping its hand in the o/n session and keeps things in suspense until the cash market open. For several days we were noting that the trend was neutral as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI in the o/n session. Yesterday the buyers staged […]
ST trend: up (attempted bottom) Yesterday we noted that the trend was up, with whipsaw risks, as FGSI showed that also buyers were inefficient. The whipsaw risk turned into full on bear, once buyers continued to be inefficient on all bounces and the Maginot Line (ML) was lost. Just a reminder: the ST trend can […]
Summary: all 3 GSIs had unconfirmed highs at Monday's high, which means we are at an important inflection point. Sellers continue to be inefficient, however if FGSI breaks below a bullish EE level that would be a big warning that we might get a bigger correction. If the bullish EE level is defended, then another […]
ST trend: up with reversal risk Last 2 days we had an apparent neutral trend in the o/n, with both buyers and sellers showing inefficiency in terms of ability to move price. And in both days it was the buyers that took the lead (back). Today, the trend is up, with sellers being inefficient, however […]
ST trend: neutral Yesterday we also noted that the trend was neutral, because after a prolonged up trend, FGSI was showing that both buyers and sellers were inefficient. We had bullish excess energy (EE) triggering on declines and and bearish EE triggering on bounces. However it was the buyers who took the lead again by […]
ST trend: neutral After the up squeeze on Friday, the market continued to put in unconfirmed highs on FGSI, which in the end led to a small correction. FGSI was showing that sellers are inefficient and did set up bullish excess energy (EE) vs lower levels. However, what is interesting is that FGSI is now […]
ST trend: up After the weakness into the close, mkt continued lower, but put in a very bullish situation at the o/n lows. Not only there was extreme pessimism on FGSI, but it was in the context of bullish excess energy (EE) vs the prior trip to extreme pessimism. Additionally it put in an unconfirmed […]